Loam
Start with the closure, then check the dirt
A land manager's closure notice settles the question. If the network is open, use Loam's condition estimate as a second check. Weather can vary over short distances here, so pay attention to what you find at the trailhead too.
The short version
Check the official closure first. Read the network condition next. Turn around if the clay is soft enough to hold a rut.
A fixed rule like "wait two days" misses too much in this region. One network can sit on an open, graded ridge that sheds water fast. Another can run through hardwood forest on ground that holds it. The same storm can leave an open ridge firm while shaded forest tread nearby is still greasy.
What changes the drying time
Recent rain and freeze-thaw
Ozark winters swing between freezing nights and warm afternoons. Tread that's frozen solid in the morning can turn soft by early afternoon as the surface thaws while the ground underneath stays firm. The clock resets with each cycle, not just with the last storm.
Soil and rock
Many of the newer purpose-built trails in this region use rock surfacing and shaped drainage that move water off quickly. Older singletrack cut through hardwood forest tends to sit on clay that holds moisture near the surface longer, a contrast this catalog spans about as widely as anywhere Loam covers.
Sun and canopy
Canopy across these 13 networks runs from roughly 12% to 92%, one of the widest canopy spreads of any region Loam tracks. Open trail gets direct sun and wind after a storm. Shaded trail holds onto surface moisture longer.
Slope and drainage
Elevation and grade don't vary here the way canopy does. Most of these networks sit within a few hundred vertical meters of each other, so a network's slope is a better read on how fast water moves off the tread than its elevation is.
A regional pattern, not a ranking
Northwest Arkansas networks sit close together on a map, but their ground isn't interchangeable. An open, graded network and a shaded hardwood network a short drive apart can come through the same storm looking nothing alike.
That doesn't make the open network a reliable fallback every time. Its status still depends on its current closure notice and condition on the day. Loam scores each network from its own canopy, slope, and recent weather instead of applying one regional clock.
How to check after a storm
Open the network page
Look at the current verdict, recent rain, and the ground traits behind the estimate.
Confirm the land manager's notice
Closures and posted restrictions take priority over a modeled condition.
Check again before leaving
A freeze-thaw afternoon can change the surface after an earlier reading.
Read the tread at the trailhead
If tires sink, leave a rut, or pick up wet clay, give the network more time.
Bentonville and Northwest Arkansas network conditions
These Loam pages show the latest modeled condition and any closure data available for the network.
Canopy near 78% keeps most of the tread shaded, on a gentle 1.3° grade, so shade does more of the work here than drainage.
Canopy runs about 84% and slope sits under 1°, a combination of heavy shade and flat ground that holds moisture close to the surface.
The densest canopy measured in the region, near 92%, on the most rolling ground in the group at 7.3° slope, giving water somewhere to go that flatter, equally shaded networks do not have.
Canopy measures near 84% on a gentle 1.1° grade, so shade is the bigger factor here than drainage.
The highest point among these networks at roughly 493m, with canopy near 80% and a slope around 4.9°, more grade to drain through than the flatter hubs.
Canopy near 85% is among the highest readings in the region, with a slope near 2.4° giving it more drainage than the flattest forested networks.
Canopy measures near 16%, among the most open ground Loam tracks in the region, so sun and wind reach the tread directly after rain.
Canopy near 83% with a slope around 3.6° sits between the shaded, flat hardwood networks and the more open, graded ones.
Canopy near 87%, one of the highest readings measured in the region, on a gentle 1.9° grade.
Canopy near 80% and slope under 2°, shaded and low grade like several of the region's hardwood networks.
Canopy measures near 67%, lower than the deep-forest networks but still enough cover to hold shade, on a gentle 1.8° grade.
The most open and flattest network measured in the region: canopy near 12%, slope near 0.3°.
Canopy near 67% and slope under 1°, open enough for direct sun on most of the tread but not treeless.
The science behind the estimate
Loam starts with a simple physical fact: a trail does not dry just because the rain stops. Water has to enter the ground, move through or across the soil, and leave the trail environment. How quickly that happens depends on the soil, terrain, vegetation, recent weather, and how wet the ground already was.
Soil controls infiltration
Soils do not accept water at the same rate. USDA hydrologic soil groups range from high-infiltration soils such as deep sands and gravels to very slow-infiltration soils associated with clay, high water tables, or restrictive layers. Typical infiltration-rate ranges used in the hydrologic-group framework run from more than 0.30 in/hr for Group A to less than 0.05 in/hr for Group D when thoroughly wet.
Previous rain still matters
A storm does not start with an empty soil profile. USGS notes that soil already saturated from previous rainfall cannot absorb much more, so a larger share of the next storm becomes runoff. Recent weather therefore matters even when the latest storm was not especially large.
Terrain changes the water path
Slope changes how quickly water can move away from a surface. Low spots, drainage features, and trail geometry can change where water collects or leaves the tread. Soil classification and slope are separate pieces of the landscape, which is why both matter to a trail-condition model.
Drying is a water budget
After rainfall, water can remain in the soil, move downward or sideways, run off, or return to the atmosphere through evaporation and plant transpiration. Soil-water-balance models use these processes to estimate changing soil moisture and net infiltration over time.
Why Loam is not a rain timer
There is no useful rule that says every trail becomes rideable after the same number of dry hours. Starting moisture, infiltration behavior, terrain, canopy, and weather after the storm all change the answer.
That is the problem Loam is designed to estimate. The model combines public soil and terrain information with recent weather and network characteristics to estimate how conditions are changing. It is a model of likely trail conditions, not a sensor embedded in the dirt, and it never overrides an official closure.
What the research says
USDA and USGS hydrology work treats infiltration, soil moisture, runoff, canopy, land cover, slope, and evapotranspiration as interacting parts of the water cycle. Recent trail research adds an important piece: rainfall intensity and accumulated rainfall can strongly affect runoff and sediment generation on recreational trails, while wet conditions make trail surfaces more vulnerable to degradation.
USDA NRCS: Hydrologic Soil Groups
Soils are classified by infiltration and runoff behavior when thoroughly wet. The framework distinguishes four main groups and dual drained/undrained classes.
NRCS National Engineering Handbook →USGS: Infiltration and the Water Cycle
Explains how soil characteristics, saturation, land cover, slope, and evapotranspiration affect where precipitation goes.
USGS Water Science School →USGS: Soil-Water-Balance
A published water-budget model that estimates soil moisture, net infiltration, evapotranspiration, and canopy interception from gridded environmental data.
USGS SWB Version 2.0 →NRCS: RUSLE2
A USDA model for estimating soil loss caused by rainfall and associated overland flow, connecting rainfall and runoff to erosion risk.
USDA NRCS RUSLE2 →Fang & Ng, Journal of Environmental Management, 2026
A year-long field study found cumulative rainfall and maximum daily rainfall predicted runoff and sediment yield on recreational trails, with maximum daily rainfall the stronger predictor in that study.
Read the research →These sources describe the physical processes and research Loam draws from. They do not describe Loam's proprietary model or disclose its weights and thresholds.